Update (April 14, 2018): Sir Ken Robinson:
I don’t mean to say that being wrong is the same thing as being creative. But we do know is that if you are not prepared to be wrong, you’ll never come up with anything original. If you’re not prepared to be wrong.
And by the time that they become adults most kids have lost that capacity. They have become frighten of being wrong. And we run our companies this way, we stigmatizes mistakes. And we are now running national education systems where mistakes are the worst thing that you can make.The result is that we are educating people out of their creative capacities.
Picasso once said this “all children are born artists, the problem is to remain an artist as we grow up.” I believe this passionately, that we don’t grow into creativity, we grow out of it. Or rather, we get educated out of it.
Elon Musk, in an interview with Gayle King on CBS This Morning that aired Friday, April 13th, admitted that he was wrong about automation in Tesla’s factory.
Elon Musk doesn’t really deserve to have a voice in the public discourse about machine learning. He’s not an expert, and his primary achievement in the area is that he pledged a lot of money to fund AI research. But the media hype about ML, and the amount of journalists hungry to spin out click-bait amplify his voice. Elon has a certain iconic status, and that means that there’s clicks in a story about him, and whatever sensational hooey he happens to be spinning at the moment.
It doesn’t take much digging to discover that many of Elon Musk’s ideas are fundamentally wrong. Musk believes that Tesla will out-Toyota Toyota when it comes to lean manufacturing. In a recent analyst call he said:
The car industry thinks they’re really good at manufacturing and actually they are quite good at manufacturing. But they just don’t realize just how much potential there is for improvement. It’s way more than they think.
He also called the pace of today’s auto factories slower than “grandma with a walker….Why shouldn’t it at least be jogging speed?”
By simplifying car design to make them easier to manufacture, installing more robots and packing cars more densely on the assembly line, Musk is convinced Tesla can build as many as one million vehicles a year in a single factory — four times the output of a typical auto plant and greater than even the world’s busiest factory, Volkswagen’s flagship plant in Wolfsburg, Germany.
In 2017, Toyota sold over 10 million cars, while Tesla sold just over 100,000. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan
makes a great point in a Forbes
article called “You Can’t Predict Who Will Change The World
“It is high time to recognize that we humans are far better at doing than understanding, and better at tinkering than inventing. But we don’t know it. We truly live under the illusion of order believing that planning and forecasting are possible. We are scared of the random, yet we live from its fruits.”