Can Google Predict the Stock Market

Can Google Predict the Stock Market
Using Artificial Intelligence to Analyze Financial Data
A Machine Learning Demonstration by
Terrance Jackson
Monday, May 21 @ 7 pm
Larchmont Public Library
121 Larchmont Avenue, Larchmont, NY
Can we use artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques on information collected by companies such as Google, Facebook, Wikipedia, and Twitter to help predict financial markets?

Debt

Based on the research of Tobias Preis, a professor of Behavioural Science & Finance at the Warwick Business School, using a trading strategy based on the changes of how often people Googled the word “debt,” yielded a return of 326% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This is compared to a 16% return for a buy and hold strategy.

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All Our Children Can Create

Terrance Jackson for NR School Board

We can show fairly conclusively that all our children can create. The challenging part is that there is no magic moment of creation. Creators spend almost all their time creating, persevering despite doubt, failure, ridicule, and rejection until they succeed in making something new and useful. There are no tricks, shortcuts, or get-creative-quick schemes. The process is ordinary, even if the outcome is not.
Creating is not magic but work, and we must teach this to our children.
The best artists, scientists, engineers, inventors, entrepreneurs, and other creators are the ones who keep taking steps by finding new problems, new solutions, and then new problems again. The root is innovation is exactly the same as it was when our species was born: looking at something and thinking, “I can make this better.”
The vast majority—98 percent—of teachers say creating is so important that it should be taught daily, but when tested, they nearly always favor less creative children over more creative children.
This is not restricted to schools, and it persists into adulthood. Decision makers and authority figures in business, science, and government all say they value creation, but when tested, they do not value creators.
Why? Because people who are more creative also tend to be more playful, unconventional, and unpredictable, and all of this makes them harder to control. No matter how much we say we value creation, deep down, most of us value control more. And so we fear and favor familiarity. Rejecting is a reflex.

New Rochelle Magazine

Click images for draft of New Rochelle Magazine


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New Tax Code Hits Westchester Hard

In 2016, Westchester County ranked first in the nation in property taxes. Westchester residents paid on average $16,500 a year in property taxes, according to a report from ATTOM Data Solutions. High taxes are undermining the Westchester economy. If you were a company trying to find a location for a new office or distribution center, why would you come to the highest taxed county in the United States?
Now, we have another problem. The GOP’s tax plan is likely to advantage wealthy Americans in a number of ways, including estate-tax, private-tuition benefits, and especially commercial real estate. Yet, where the housing market is concerned, proposed changes — particularly those in the House version of the bill — are set to disproportionately affect wealthier homeowners. According to an article in The New York Times:
The bill, if enacted into law, could send home prices tumbling 10 percent or more in parts of the New York area, according to one economic analysis. It could increase the regional tax burden, complicating companies’ efforts to attract skilled workers. It could make it harder for state and local governments to pay for upgrades to the transit system and other infrastructure. And it could force cuts in federal programs that help immigrants, the elderly and other low-income residents afford the region’s high cost of living.

SALT deductions

Westchester residents and Westchester home values could both take a big hit when the new tax bill is enacted. At present the differences between the House and Senate versions of the tax bill will be reconciled by a conference committee and then enacted into law, but both versions include provisions that will be costly to many Westchester residents.

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Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google Should be Broken Up

Gladiators

In Fast Company, Douglas Rushkoff wrote “It’s Time To Break Up Amazon:”
Whatever you may think of Jeff Bezos, and whether or not antitrust regulations can justifiably be applied to a company whose expansion doesn’t raise but actually lowers costs for end consumers, may be beside the point. Many of us get that something is amiss, but are ourselves so deeply enmeshed in the logic of last century’s version of free-market industrial capitalism that we can’t quite bring ourselves to call this out for the threat it poses to our markets, our economy, and even our planet….

Douglas Rushkoff

The problem is, when an existing market is merely a means to another end, the company doesn’t consider the long-term effects of its actions. Amazon treated the book industry the same way companies like Walmart once treated the territories into which they expanded: Use a war chest of capital to undercut prices, put competitors out of business, become the sole employer in the community, turn employees into part-time shift workers, lobby for deregulation, and effectively extract all the value from a given region before closing up shop and moving to the next one.

Fat Cats

This model of doing business—one that even a proto-fascist like Henry Ford would have considered obscene—has not served corporations well. As the data now reveals, corporate profits have been steadily decreasing relative to corporate size over the past 75 years…. And by sucking their customers and suppliers dry, such companies end up destroying the marketplaces on which they depend for revenue. It’s a form of financial obesity, where the only thing left for the company to do is acquire a new marketplace, extract all its value, and move on.

Scott Galloway

At Business Insider’s IGNITION conference, Scott Galloway gave a presentation on why “The Big Four” — Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google — should be broken up. Galloway is a professor of marketing at the NYU Stern School of Business and the author of “The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google.”

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Agency as a Cure for Violence

We are bringing Genius Farm
To Baltimore and Philadelphia

When it comes to technology skills, the U.S. comes in last place — right below Poland. In addition, there was a significant racial difference with non-whites scoring below whites.
That’s why we are introducing students to artificial intelligence (A.I.), computer vision, data science, machine learning, robotics and blockchain technology.
Tech’s biggest companies are placing huge bets on artificial intelligence (A.I.) where typical A.I. specialists can be paid from $300,000 to $500,000 a year or more in salary and company stock.
We must educate our children for the 21st Century

In 1990, there were 305 homicides in Baltimore and 2,262 homicides in New York City. In 2017, Baltimore is actually on track to surpass New York City in homicides. According to The Baltimore Sun:
New York, which has a population of 8.5 million, had 182 homicides as of Sept. 3, according to police department data. Baltimore, a city of less than 620,000, was already at 238 victims as of that date, records show.
On a per-capita basis, the cities aren’t anywhere near each other. Baltimore saw 50 killings per 100,000 people in 2016. New York had 3.9 killings per 100,000.
New York’s declines in the 1990s often were attributed to zero-tolerance policies and statistics-based policing, prompting Baltimore to adopt similar strategies. But New York in recent years also backed away from controversial stop-and-frisk tactics, and has continued to experience big declines.

The New Jim Crow by Michelle Alexander
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Stop Punishing Businesses for Making Money

We need to change the tax code to stop punishing revenue generating businesses.
For 75 years now, corporate profit over their total value has been decreasing. That means corporations are really good at accumulating money, but increasingly worse at deploying that money. At making money with money. This is really serious.
Pharmaceutical companies don’t know how to make drugs, they only know to acquire companies that do. Google even, is no longer a technology company. Google became Alphabet. It’s a holding company…. They might as well be Goldman Sachs…. They don’t know how to create value.
They are using a bankrupt method. They are using a 13th Century corporate operating system to run digitally-enabled businesses…. That model is obsolete…. It was based on going to South American and enslaving people and taking their precious metals. It doesn’t work for a digital economy.
America needs us all. And we all depend on each other.
New York’s 16th Congressional District

Terrance Jackson for Congress

Democracy is based on citizens caring about and taking responsibility for both themselves as for the well-being of all.

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Genius Farm: Closing the Achievement Gap

Genius Farm

We must educate our children for the 21st Century
When it comes to technology skills, the U.S. comes in last place — right below Poland. In addition, there was a significant racial difference with non-whites scoring below whites.
That’s why we are introducing students to artificial intelligence (A.I.), computer vision, data science, machine learning, robotics and blockchain technology.
Tech’s biggest companies are placing huge bets on artificial intelligence (A.I.) where typical A.I. specialists can be paid from $300,000 to $500,000 a year or more in salary and company stock.
The Achievement Gap
For decades, educators have struggled to close the “achievement gap,” the persistent differences in test scores, grades and graduation rates among students of different races, ethnicities and, in some subjects, genders.
According to an American Psychological Association article, a group of social and cognitive psychologists have approach this problem not based on the idea that at least some of these disparities are the result of faulty teaching or broken school systems, but instead spring from toxic stereotypes that cause ethnic-minority and other students such as women to question whether they belong in school and whether they can do well there. While such a major problem might seem to require widespread social change to fix, the psychologists are finding evidence that short, simple interventions can make a surprisingly large difference.
In a Scientific American article “Time to Raise the Profile of Women and Minorities in Science” written by Brian Welle and Megan Smith of Google, we learn:
Google recently commissioned a project to identify what makes girls pursue education in computer science. The findings reinforced what we already knew. Encouragement from a parent or teacher is essential for them to appreciate their own abilities. They need to understand the work itself and see its impact and importance. They need exposure to the field by having a chance to give it a shot. And, most important, they need to understand that opportunities await them in the technical industry.
It took some time, but Google realized that it recognized zero women with their Google Doodles, the embellishments of their corporate logo on their home page. Little things like this can have big impacts and to change the situation we need to look beyond the individual. As Malcolm Gladwell wrote in Outliers which The New York Times printed the first chapter:
[Y]ou couldn’t understand why someone was healthy if all you did was think about their individual choices or actions in isolation. You had to look beyond the individual. You had to understand what culture they were a part of, and who their friends and families were, and what town in Italy their family came from. You had to appreciate the idea that community — the values of the world we inhabit and the people we surround ourselves with — has a profound effect on who we are. The value of an outlier was that it forced you to look a little harder and dig little deeper than you normally would to make sense of the world. And if you did, you could learn something from the outlier that could use to help everyone else.
In Outliers, I want to do for our understanding of success what Stewart Wolf did for our understanding of health.

Otliers
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